November State of Sales: Momentum met reality
November cooled off after October’s peak, with sales at 85% of R3 — while the forecast for December exploded to 20x higher. A reminder that a full pipeline isn’t always a real one.
When Momentum Meets Reality
November brought the first real slowdown since summer. Sales dropped to 85% of R3, deal values and activity eased, and win rates held steady. But the biggest story wasn’t the dip — it was the December forecast spike that revealed just how inflated year-end pipelines can get.
November broke the streak.
After October’s record high, sales activity cooled — landing at 85% of R3. It wasn’t a collapse. More a return to normal after a month that surged far above trend.
Deal values followed the same path.
Average deal size came in at 90% of R3, a sign that buyers pulled back slightly after a period of higher-value decisions. And deal count mirrored it, also at 90% of R3, showing that the slowdown was broad and evenly distributed across teams.
Win rates held steady.
Conversion efficiency stayed at 100% of R3, which matters. Even with fewer opportunities in motion, teams continued to close at a stable rate. The quality is still there — the volume softened.
But the real story this month sits in the forecast.
The projected December revenue, based on all open opportunities marked to close before year-end, is 20x higher than actual November sales. It’s the yearly ritual. Every deal somehow lands on 2025-12-31.
It’s easy to laugh at.
But for CFOs, CEOs, and VP RevOps reporting forecast to the board, the problem isn’t funny. A pipeline that swells on paper but doesn’t move in reality creates noise, not clarity.
A healthy pipeline isn’t the one that looks full.
It’s the one that’s honest.
And November is a reminder that year-end forecasting has less to do with reality — and more to do with administrative gravity.
The question now isn’t whether November slowed.
It’s whether December can separate truth from tradition.
We’ll break it down next month.
Onwards,
Emil
Customer retention is the key
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What are the most relevant factors to consider?
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Don’t overspend on growth marketing without good retention rates
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What’s the ideal customer retention rate?
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Next steps to increase your customer retention
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Emil Wargelius
Former sales and product leader. Passionate about incentives that drive real behaviour and growth.
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