State of Sales 2025: A Year of Volatility and Growth
2025 didn’t move in straight lines. Sales swung, pipelines shifted, and forecasts struggled to keep up. Still, the year ended almost 100% up in new sales. This is the story behind that curve.
State of Sales 2025: A Year of Volatility and Growth
2025 did not move in straight lines.
It moved in waves.
Some months surged. Others cooled off just as fast. Forecasts shifted. Pipelines inflated and deflated. Expectations changed quarter by quarter.
To understand the year as a whole, we normalized monthly sales to January as a baseline.
What followed was not stability.
But it was growth.
By year-end, new sales for our customers were close to 100% higher than in January.
Volatile does not mean weak.
In 2025, it meant adaptive.
Growth without stability
The defining trait of 2025 was volatility.
Sales moved up and down throughout the year, sometimes sharply. Yet the long-term direction was clear.
Growth did not come from a smooth climb.
It came from the ability to recover quickly after slowdowns and capitalize when demand returned.
This matters.
Teams waiting for “stable conditions” would have waited all year.
What sat behind the sales curve
Sales told us what happened.
The other metrics explain how it happened.
They did not move in sync. And that is the point.
Deal count acted as the stabilizer.
While activity moved up and down, volume stayed resilient enough to support growth.
Average deal value came in bursts.
Peaks were followed by pauses. Buyers were selective, and confidence returned in moments rather than trends.
Win rate provided direction, not lift.
Conversion fluctuated, but stayed within a narrow range, allowing growth to compound when timing and volume aligned.
Taken together, the story is clear.
2025 rewarded precision more than aggression.
Volatility changed how forecasting worked
Volatility also exposed a structural weakness.
Traditional forecasts struggled to keep up with how fast conditions changed. This was most visible at quarter and year-end, where pipelines routinely looked healthier than reality.
December was the extreme case.
Forecasts swelled. Closures did not always follow.
The lesson is not that forecasting failed.
It is that forecasting models built for stable growth were applied to an unstable market.
Rolling views mattered more than static plans.
Reality moved faster than budgets.
What actually drove growth in 2025
Growth in 2025 did not come from doing more of everything.
It came from:
- timing rather than volume
- consistency rather than spikes
- win rate discipline rather than pipeline inflation
Teams that adapted quickly outperformed teams that waited for clarity.
Volatility punished hesitation.
It rewarded focus.
Looking ahead
2025 proved something important.
Growth does not require stability.
But it does require honesty.
Honest pipelines.
Honest forecasts.
Honest reads of what is actually working.
The teams that learned this early pulled ahead.
The ones that did not are still explaining December.
Best,
Emil
Customer retention is the key
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What are the most relevant factors to consider?
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Don’t overspend on growth marketing without good retention rates
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What’s the ideal customer retention rate?
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Next steps to increase your customer retention
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Emil Wargelius
Former sales and product leader. Passionate about incentives that drive real behaviour and growth.
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